The California Drought - is there a way to break it?

November 28, 2014.  Joe Lizura Blog.  Not to be sarcastic, but have you heard that California is in a drought?  It's a big one for sure with major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno and San Diego facing shortages that may require even more water restrictions.

Folsom Lake during a normal year of rainfall

Around the state, there are farmlands and dairylands that have been abandoned, and mile after mile in the central valley normally very fertile lush farms are nothing more than dirt.

Up and down the state, reservoirs are nearly empty, and in some smaller towns where well water dried up months ago, daily water truck deliveries are now the norm.

A dried up Folsom Lake in January

So after three years of drought conditions, and lots of media coverage saying that it will take years to end the drought,  the question is how long "really"will it take for the drought to end?  Is it possible to end the drought in one year or will it take two or three years of heavy rains to finally restore our reservoirs to their normal levels?

The answer to that question is somewhat surprising because the answer really doesn't have much to do with how much rain falls as it has to do with how quickly storms come back-to-back, and here's why.

Having spent 25 years in California as a meteorologist, one thing I can tell you for certain is that our reservoirs fill up not by rainfall, but by run-off.  So equally as important, if not more so, is how quickly storms come in a row.  In order to maximize the impact of storms, they have to come one after another, because the first storm in a series soaks into the ground, which allows subsequent storms to be "run-off" which fills reservoirs.

So for example, let say the Sacramento area normally gets 25 inches of rain a year (that's actually how much they average annually), and the rain falls evenly from October thru April with a storm every other week. The run-off would be quite low because there would be too much time for the ground to dry out between storms - meaning a large part of each storm would be needed just to get the ground soaked again before the run-off begins.

Whereas, if you were to get all 25 inches of rain in just 8 weeks, the run-off would be huge and the reservoirs would be the recipients of more than enough rainfall to end the drought.

Now with that said, there are two other issues - one helps end the drought and one hurts it.  The first issue is how cold the storms are - the colder the better because the snow pack that builds up in the mountains will melt continuously over the spring with run-off over soaked ground.  The other issue is where the storms enter the state - if the storms soak northern California where the reservoirs are located, then clearly that would mean run-off going into reservoirs because that is where the water storage reservoirs are located.  If the storms come into Southern California, that would be the worst case because there are relatively no storage reservoirs in the southern part of the state, and all of that run-off would directly into the ocean.

So, the summary of all of this is that yes you can end a multi-year drought in one year, but it will take several key things happening in our favor - so let's keep the fingers crossed!

Joe Lizura
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Making Los Angeles Traffic Move Faster

Here is an interesting thought - trying to make the traffic flow better in Los Angeles.  April 2, 2013_As I can certainly agree, LA traffic is just a train wreck when it comes to organization.  Finally there is a new system in place to make it work better (at least in theory). 

San Francisco may be testing smart self-driving cars, but farther south, Los Angeles is still battling dumb traffic. To speed things up (a bit), the city has synchronized 4,000-something traffic lights, becoming the first city in the world with such a system, the New York Times reports.
One might imagine this would lead to drivers across the city swearing in unison as they hit red lights at the same time, but it's far more complex than uniform timing.

Magnetic sensors at street corners funnel real-time information about traffic flow into a central system, which then predicts where congestion will take place. If tweaking signal times could help traffic move quicker — say, speeding up turnover at an intersection — the software or a human operator makes it happen.

After 30 years in the works, the plan went live in February, and the results of the change are trickling in. Average driving time has fallen — it used to take 20 minutes to drive 5 miles, but now it just takes 17.2. And, the average speed has gone up: from 15 miles per hour to 17.3 mph, the Times reports.
The goal is to raise the travel speed by 16 percent, and reduce travel time by 12 percent, L.A. authorities said when they first introduced the scheme.

In Tennessee, Nashville and its suburb, Brentwood, may get their lights synced as well.
Perhaps this will take off as a partial solution to gridlock across America. However, there are some who argue light syncs aren't a healthy long-term approach to traffic — they just lead to more cars on the road.

All I hope is that it actually makes a difference the next time I am in LA, which is probably going to be in the next few days if all goes well.

San Diego's Joe Lizura
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Disney Makes A Bad Move

San Diego, Ca March 18, 2013.  Generally Disney is a great company that usually has its finger on the pulse of everything that is good about families, children, entertainment and of course, business. But today's decision to prevent kids under the age of 14 from entering any Disney park without an older person to accompany them is borderline idiotic.  Seriously, it's a virtual impossibility to have every kid escorted by an adult. Unless there is something I am missing about this policy, it seems absurd - according to what I read, Disney will not allow any child under the age of 14 to be unescorted by an oder person in their park.  How's that going to work?  I'm looking forward to seeing exactly how a divorced parent with 3 kids is going to be in 3 places at one time in the park, because I'm quite certain that her 14 year old and 12 year old are not going to want to be on kiddie ride all day with the 5 year old sibling.  Or how about all of those school field trips from the 6th graders?  Let me guess, they'll make an exception there because they won't want to lose the millions of dollars in revenue every year.  Speaking of which, get ready for a tidalwave of season pass holders who won't be renewing because yes, they do drop their kids off at the theme park designed for kids - Helloooo?

All right enough venting, here is a link to the story from USA Today  http://www.usatoday.com/story/dispatches/2013/03/18/disney-world-disneyland-minimum-age-admission/1996111/ 

And the story body: 
Starting this weekend, Disney's U.S. theme parks will ban children under age 14 unless they're accompanied by someone the same age or older.
The new policy, which takes effect March 23, will apply at Disney World in Orlando and Disneyland and Disney California Adventure in Anaheim. Since most youngsters under 14 don't carry government-issued IDs, "the policy will be enforced as guests are entering the park, (with) a visual screening for someone who appears to be younger than 14," said Disney spokeswoman Suzi Brown. If the staffer determines that the guest is under 14, a parent or guardian will be notified and required to escort the child in the park, she said.
The policy was not triggered by "any kind of issue or incident," but was intended to "provide a consistent age of admission and address a question we occasionally get from parents," Brown added.
Families with annual passes, some of whom routinely drop their children off at a park for the day, were notified about the policy change in an e-mail last week.

Good luck with this policy.

Joe Lizura
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Hostess and the last bag of powdered doughnuts

San Diego, November 18, 2012.  I wasn't sure whether to be happy today or sad, and here's why.  Everyone who knows me knows that I love everything that the Hostess company makes - especially those powdered doughnuts, the twinkes, zingers, chocolate frosted cakes with cream filling . . . hmmm, pretty much everything they make.  So for the last few days I've been sad about the fact that the company would be going out of business.

Then today when I went to the foodstore to do the weekly foodshopping - there the were - the very last bag of powdered doughuts on the Hostess shelf (right next to the sign that said they would no longer be carrying the items because the company was going out of business) so with mixed emotions, I bought the last bag that the Vons store would ever be carrying - and then I ate most of them on the way home - just like nothing ever happened!  But I do know that there won't be any more unless the company can figure out a way to save my sweet tooth!

Here is the story about the company going out of business>  http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/11/16/hostess-brands-to-liquidate-lay-off-18500-after-crippling-union-fight/

A small union's stubbornness in contract talks with Hostess is being blamed for the shutdown of one of America's snack food icons, the loss of 18,500 jobs just before the holiday season and much-needed tax revenue from hundreds of plants and shops across the country.

The privately-held company had reached a deal with the Teamsters, but a smaller union representing bakery workers refused to agree to concessions, prompting the mass layoffs and closing down of hundreds of plants, bakeries and delivery routes. That prompted harsh words from both the company and from Teamsters officials.

"We deeply regret the necessity of today's decision, but we do not have the financial resources to weather an extended nationwide strike," Chief Executive Gregory Rayburn said in a statement. "Hostess Brands will move promptly to lay off most of its 18,500-member workforce and focus on selling its assets to the highest bidders."

The company said it will continue to ship out its well-known products until inventory runs out.

The national strike by members of the Bakery, Confectionary, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers International Union (BCTGM) that began last week decimated the 82-year-old company’s ability to produce and deliver products at roughly 12 of its 33 plants. The company announced earlier in the week that the ax would fall on Friday if the strikers didn’t get back to work, but the union didn’t blink. BCTGM President Frank Hurt said Thursday that the crisis was the "result of nearly a decade of financial and operational mismanagement" and charged management was scapegoating workers to allow the Wall Street investors who own Hostess to sell.

Calls seeking comment from Hurt were not returned early Friday.

Marty Zimmerman, secretary-treasurer for BCTGM Local 85, told Fox40 from a Sacramento picket line early Friday that workers had been at “wits end” with Hostess brass.

“Well, the mindset is we’re standing strong, absolutely,” Zimmerman told the station. “I mean, they’ve taken our pensions away, we’ve had seven CEOs in the last 10 years; this company has been so mismanaged. Really, we’re at our wits end and enough is enough”

The Irving, Texas-based company had already reached an agreement on pay and benefit cuts with its largest union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. On Thursday, Teamsters officials blasted the smaller union for not seeking a “solution” in the process or to engage in negotiations.

“The BCTGM chose a different path, as is their prerogative, to not substantively look for a solution or engage in the process,” the statement read. “BCTGM members were told there were better solutions than the final offer, although Judge Drain stated in his decision in bankruptcy court that no such solutions exist. Without complete information, BCTGM members voted by voice votes in union halls. The BCTGM reported that over 90 percent rejected the final offer and three of its units ratified the final offer.”

In a letter to employees posted on the company’s website, Rayburn said all employees would eventually lose their jobs, some sooner than others.

"Many people have worked incredibly long and hard to keep this from happening, but now Hostess Brands has no other alternative than to begin the process of winding down and preparing for the sale of our iconic brands," Rayburn’s letter read. “As you know, for many months the Company has been working with our unions, lenders and other stakeholders to reach a consensual resolution to legacy costs and labor contracts. Despite everyone’s considerable efforts to move Hostess out of its restructuring, when we began implementing the Company’s last, best and final offer, the Bakers Union chose to stage a crippling strike.”

Because the company is privately held, its financials were not available. But has struggled for several years, with some blaming America’s increasing appetite for healthier fare. The company sought concessions from employees, but instead got a costly strike that further crippled it, according to officials, who told a federal bankruptcy court it would lose up to $9.5 million from Nov. 9 to Nov. 19 in lost sales and increased costs. The company has cancelled all orders in process and said any baked goods currently in transit would be returned to shippers.

“These losses and other factors, including increased vendor payment terms contraction, have resulted in a significant weakening of the debtors’ cash position and, if continued, would soon result in the debtors completely running out of cash,” the filing read.

Hostess will now sell its popular brands like Ding Dongs, Ho Ho’s and Sno Balls, along with the closure of 565 distribution centers, 570 bakery outlet stores and roughly 5,550 delivery routes.

Lenders have agreed to allow Hostess to continue to access $75 million in financing put in place at the start of the bankruptcy cases to fund the sale and wind-down process, subject to U.S. Bankruptcy Court approval.

BCTGM workers began striking at some Hostess production facilities without notifying Teamsters officials on Nov. 9, the Teamsters said.

“This unannounced action put Teamster members in the difficult position of facing picket lines without knowing their right to honor such a line without being disciplined,” the statement continued.

- So all I can say is that I hope they sell off the secret recepies so that we can all enjoy American's favorite snacks!

Joe Lizura
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Joe Lizura. May 20, 2012.  Once again, it's very sad news to learn that another talented individual has passed on.  Robin Gibb and the Bee Gees were such a big part the music scene during my high school years, that simply hearing one of their songs can bring back so many memories.  There was much more to the Bee Gees than disco, and this article highlights an amazing career - check it out at:  http://music.yahoo.com/bee-gees/biography/


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Joe Lizura. May 16, 2012.  This story really "Chaps My Hide" as they say.  Why are we paying $4.29 per gallon of gas when oil is at a 6 month low and inventories are at a 22 year high?!  What should the price of a gallon of gas really be? Try about $3.50 a gallon in the more expensive states like California, and $2.75 in the less expensive states like Arizona and Texas - this my friends is what people care about in election years.  Read for yourself about the status of oil:  http://news.yahoo.com/oil-falls-6-month-low-below-93-us-043211022--finance.html

Joe Lizura
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